Priority 1: Investigating Weather and Climate Information Needs and Decision Making

While decision makers in virtually all sectors of the economy could benefit from improved weather and climate information, they often have little idea of what is currently available and how it could benefit them. At NCAR, we are committed to exploring "the art of the possible" with decision makers, working with them to understand the nature of their work, how it is affected by weather and climate, and how they use information to make decisions.

FY 2006 Accomplishments

NCAR Scientists are exploring the use and value of scientific information for climate and weather applications. NCAR researchers have developed a Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool (DUST) to link research in uncertainty assessments within weather forecasts, climate variability and change projections and impact analyses with research on decision and policy-making processes. Working with NOAA scientists, NCAR researchers are addressing complex climate-sensitive issues of concern to decision makers at the regional level through the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) program. RISA efforts are currently focused on the American Southwest, Pacific Northwest, and Alaska. During FY06, NCAR and RISA established a partnership to work within the Pacific Islands Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (Pacific RISA) program, which supports the emergence of an integrated program of climate risk management in the Pacific region. NCAR scientists are also working in California to conduct assessments of the impact of climate change on the state, as well as mitigation and adaptation strategies to combat these impacts. Preliminary results of the assessment of the California coastal sector provide numerous points of intervention to improve future preparedness for climate change impacts.

Effective communication of climate change information is the subject of a three-year program at NCAR. Researchers are developing a research and action agenda and will publish their results in a book entitled, Creating a Climate for Change. One of the most critical problems in this area of social science research is determining how to address uncertainty. Clear decisions about mitigating the impacts of climate change will need to be made before we fully understand the magnitude and spatial/temporal dimensions of those impacts. To address this issue, NCAR researchers have developed a Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool (DUST) to link research in uncertainty assessments within weather forecasts, climate variability and change projections and impact analyses with research on decision and policy-making processes. This effort is aimed at ensuring that scientific information effectively connects with the needs of decision makers. DUST is a seven-step process, and the preliminary steps of identification and exploration were initiated in FY06.

Program Plan

The collaborations with the RISA program and with California scientists described above will continue in FY07. This emerging RISA will continue to build on existing regional efforts in climate science and services, including over a decade of regional experience in the development and use of ENSO-based forecasts. NCAR will bring scientists and decision makers together in working sessions to assess the usability and value of the DUST model in case studies. The case studies will use the model (e.g., in adaptation to climate change impacts in coastal California, water resource management in California, and fire management in Colorado) in order to test the DUST model in a variety of temporal and geographic scales. Researchers expect to publish results in peer-reviewed journals in 2007.