Priority 1: Exploring Atmospheric, Earth System, and Solar Processes, Variability and Change

Exploring atmospheric, Earth system, and solar processes, and the variability and change of these processes, are critical components to reaching NCAR's Strategic Goal #1. In partnerships with the universities and other agencies, NCAR scientists pursue the scientific issues associated with attaining this goal. Exploration into these areas will focus on three key activities: simulation of natural Earth system variability, research on magnetic-flux eruptions from the sun, and understanding the effects of gravity waves, including the coupling between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.

FY 2006 Accomplishments

Simulation of natural Earth system variability, covers a number of aspects of the Earth system. Modeling studies of the Earth's paleoclimate offer a unique perspective on climate sensitivity and stability, which can then be applied to studies of current and future climate changes. There has been much interest and discussion of the likely role of global warming in contributing to observed increases in the intensity of tropical cyclones. The sun is a major player in affecting the Earth system and studies are underway to examine how solar variability contributes to the Earth system variability. The complexity and interactions between meteorology and chemistry also have significant impacts on the Earth system. NCAR scientists have made significant progress in understanding many of these aspects through research on simulation of the natural Earth system. See projects related to this priority.

Research on magnetic-flux eruptions from the sun, involves studies of the details of solar physics and space weather and is our second key activity under this priority. An understanding of these is crucial to predicting solar variability and the resulting impacts on the Earth system. NCAR scientists have made significant progress in understanding solar physics and space weather through research on space weather. See projects related to this priority. In this report, we discuss two significant activities in this area, the NCAR Space Weather Program and our plans to develop a new Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory.

Understanding the effects of gravity waves, includes multidisciplinary studies of the formation and propagation of gravity waves and their impact on other aspects of atmospheric circulation is the third key activity. This activity also includes studies of the chemistry, hydrology, and dynamics of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). NCAR scientists have made significant progress in understanding gravity waves and the UTLS region through research on gravity waves. See projects related to this priority.

Program Plan

The following are the FY 2007 NCAR plans for Strategic Priority #1.

Simulation of natural Earth system variability:

Use the Whole-Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to explore the response of the whole atmosphere, including connections between the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere, and climate system to solar variability and also the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). We also will study the chaotic divergence of initial conditions.

Simulate the magnitudes and rates of past climate change on many time scales using the planned NCAR Earth System Model, which will allow us to explore more completely feedbacks with vegetation and ice sheets, atmospheric chemical changes, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles.

There has been much interest and discussion of the likely role of global warming in contributing to observed increases in the intensity of tropical cyclones. To better understand this we will continue to perform numerical and diagnostic studies of the causes for observed changes in tropical cyclones, as well as their energy and water cycles and their role in the climate system.

Simulate both individual case studies and regions containing several convective storms to understand the role deep convection has on the composition of the upper troposphere and in cleansing the atmosphere via removal of pollutants by wet deposition.

Analyze aircraft (C130, DC-8) and satellite data gathered during the NASA Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B) combined with models of different scales including the Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART) to probe the impact of Asian emissions of gases and aerosols on air quality in the western US.

Analyze aircraft and ground-based measurements in combination with models with external university and other agency colleagues to understand the surprisingly active lower tropospheric chemistry in the Antarctic summer.

Continue to monitor and model changing conditions in the Earth's upper atmosphere to help develop a complete picture of global atmospheric change, and aid in predicting the orbital evolution of objects ranging from hazardous space debris to the International Space Station.

Research on magnetic-flux eruptions from the sun: Continue to further develop the capability of flux transport dynamo models to forecast future solar cycle features, and to refine the non-kinematic dynamo model that includes large-scale field-flow interactions.

Investigate the solar origins of the coronal mass ejections including performing three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of buoyant flux ropes in the convection, study the emergence of new flux concentrations into the corona, the interactions of these structures with pre-existing magnetic fields, and the formation of dissipative current sheets in evolving coronal magnetic configurations.

Collect daily observations from the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (MLSO), for the purpose of monitoring the precursors, development, and eruption of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the low corona.

Understanding the effects of gravity waves: Continue to improve the operational data processing code of The High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS).

Participate in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Analyses of Regional Transport (START)08 experiment with an instrument payload to measure chemical and microphysical tracers that will identify the transport pathways and characterize the transport boundary in the extratropical UTLS region.

Investigate the formation of a working group under the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOTEP), the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) and NCAR to facilitate interactions between mesoscale modelers, gravity wave theorists and observationalists.

On the following pages, we report on some of the highlights related to this priority.

Science: Strategic Goal 1