Goal 2, Priority 1: Investigating Weather and Climate Information Needs and Decision Making
While decision makers in virtually all sectors of the economy could benefit from improved weather and climate information, they often have little idea of what data are currently available, and how they could benefit from this information. At NCAR, we are committed to exploring "the art of the possible" with decision makers, working with them to understand the nature of their work, how it is affected by weather and climate, and how they use information to make decisions.
FY2007 Accomplishments
Click to enlarge. Simulated hurricane evacuation behavior in a proof-of-principle model.
One goal of SERE is to ensure that scientific information effectively connects with the needs of decision-makers. The Weather and Climate Impacts Assessment Science Program (WCIASP) Climate seeks to examine and enhance the processes and methods for generating and communicating scientific knowledge to improve decision-making. Run by SERE/ISSE, the WCIASP focuses on critical gaps in the weather and climate arenas that are particularly challenging for decision-makers and scientists alike. These areas can be encompassed in three categories:
- characterizing uncertainty;
- extreme weather and climate events; and
- the role of climate in human health.
SERE scientists are also researching the complex interactions between climate processes, ecosystems, and human health in order to improve projections of climate impacts on human health and the health of the planet. One project that falls into this area is the “Health Risks from Climate Change and Variability in Wisconsin.” Started in FY2006 and continuing in FY2007, this project looks at the effect of extremes in temperature and precipitation on human health (morbidity) in Wisconsin and Chicago.
Click to enlarge. The map shows results from the Societal Impacts Program’s Overall US Sector Sensitivity Assessment which examined the sensitivity and vulnerability of state-level economic productivity to weather.
The Societal Impacts Program (SIP), a joint RAL/SERE program, aims to provide information that decision makers require. In FY2007, SIP accomplishments include completion of the Overall U.S. Sector Sensitivity Assessment, an empirical assessment of the vulnerability of the major U.S. economic sectors to weather variability. This assessment indicates that annual weather variability causes approximately 3.4% or $260B variability in annual gross domestic product. Building on this work, SIP staff initiated work on sector-specific studies with an emphasis on assessing the use and value of current and improved weather forecasts in addition to sectoral impact of weather. In 2007, this work has been focused on the transportation sector.
In other research, an internet-based survey of 1520 U.S. households nationwide was conducted to elicit information on people’s sources, perceptions, uses, and values for weather forecasts. People’s understanding of, use of, and preferences for weather forecast uncertainty information were also elicited in the survey. Preliminary results indicate that the average household accesses weather forecast information from various sources 115 times a month. Results also show that a majority of people are willing to receive forecasts that contain uncertainty information and that people have preferences for how uncertainty information is conveyed.
Funding from the U.S. Voluntary Cooperation Program Contribution managed by NOAA’s NWS International Activities Office was used to develop the “Primer on Economics for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services”. This primer is primarily intended for members of the weather community with the goal of increasing their understanding of economic methods and their applicability in evaluating both the impacts of national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) and the associated benefits and costs of those services.
SIP members continued to lead efforts to integrate social science research in the weather community, supporting activities to develop a social science research agenda on the hurricane warning and forecast system (leading to a special issue of Natural Hazards Review published in July 2007). Members were also instrumental in publication of the first quarterly issue of Weather and Society Watch, a newsletter aimed at building a stronger, more informed societal impacts community.
FY2008 Plans for Strategic Priority 1
To provide society, research organizations and decision makers with the information andtools they need, NCAR will conduct the following activities in FY08:
- SERE will continue development of WCIASP projects. The integrated uncertainty project will be expanded to include other water basins throughout the western U.S.
- SERE will also host the next biennial Health and Climate workshop, which will focus on the combined effects of heat stress and air pollution on human health.
- RAL and SERE will continue to analyze and publish results from the U.S. household survey on sources, uses and preferences for weather forecasts and weather forecast uncertainty information.
- Examination of the societal impacts and economic values for activities of NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Testbed Center in the American River area of California.
- Assess the use and communication of extreme weather warning information by forecasters, public officials, the media, and members of the public with a focus on how they receive, interpret, and use warning information
- Conduct a preliminary assessment of the reliability, accuracy, and consistency of extreme weather data.
- Develop an overview of best practices for interacting with users to introduce new decision support technologies into their working environments.
Related Lab Annual Report Sections:
Goal 2, Priority 1